THAT'S MY STORY AND I AM STICKING TO IT... WE'LL MAYBE NOT. (an attorney's viewpoint)
Critic

IF Kobe denied having sex at all when first questioned by the police, then I bump the chances of conviction up from 25% to about 40%. Prosecutor, cross examining Kobe Bean Bryant: "So when asked about this some 14 hours later, with a night's sleep and plenty of time to reflect on it, your decision was to protect yourself by lying to the police? Lying when you think it's to your advantage to do so must come naturally to you. [pause for objections to be sustained] And after DNA testing made it clear you couldn't stick with your first story, you now ask this jury to believe your revised story is the truth instead of a second attempt to lie your way out of it? Riiiiight. No more questions of this witness; doesn't seem to be much point in asking this guy questions." I think I now know why the prosecutor decided to buck the odds and go for a rape conviction here. Kobe may not be playing basketball for many years. It's still tough to get 12 jurors convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that there was no consent, but if he lied to the cops then I'm guessing that a hung jury is a LOT more probable than a not guilty verdict. Lying to the cops plus the witness testimony is surely going to be enough for at least a couple of jurors not to have any doubts. This could end up pleading out after all -- if the prosecutor is willing to reduce it to a lesser charge. He MIGHT be willing, as these cases always offer big chances for the defense to win. But, if the lying is a fact, then the prosecutor surely wouldn't take a plea to a misdemeanor -- it likely would have to be a lesser felony. Better to go to trial and get a hung jury than to stand up before the local constituency as the guy who let a celebrity get off with just a misdemeanor for raping a local.

As a defense attorney, I would be extremely worried about the lying to the cops. The prosecutor is going to hammer that over and over and over again -- assuming that's what happened. When I thought he had all along claimed consent to the cops but hadn't admitted it to the press until the charges were filed, I figured he was about 60% to walk away with a not guilty, maybe even better odds than that, given how good his attorneys rate to be. With no record, there would be little to impeach his credibility as a witness and all the forensics could be called part of something to which there had been consent. But, lying to the cops (if that happened) both shows something to hide and a willingness to lie. BTW, that's not like lying to the press -- it's surely at least a misdemeanor crime in Colorado (it is everywhere around here) and I suspect that it will be added to the charges to make sure he can't just skate with nothing. He can't contest that one without convicting himself of a felony, so they could give him what chess players would call a "fork" or bridge players an "endplay," classical scholars would call "Scybda and Charybdis" and country boys would call "between a rock and a hard place" -- he can choose one of two bad outcomes, but can't avoid both.